The knockout stage always changes the complexion of the Golden Boot race. Group-stage scoring records create the early leaderboard, but every elimination match brings fresh opportunities for players to separate themselves. A single brace can move someone from chasing the leaders to sitting alone at the top.
As the tournament progresses, the race has become tighter rather than clearer. Kylian Mbappé currently leads the standings, but Lionel Messi is nipping at his heels, while Erling Haaland, Ousmane Dembélé, and Vinícius Júnior remain close enough to challenge if their countries continue advancing.
Mbappé enters the knockout stage as the player everyone else is trying to catch. His two-goal performance against Sweden pushed him to six goals from four matches and reinforced why France continues to rely on him whenever they need a decisive attacking moment. His acceleration, movement behind defenders, and composure in front of goal have consistently separated him from the rest of the field.
His scoring record has also come against different styles of opposition. Whether facing teams that defend deep or those willing to press higher up the pitch, Mbappé has repeatedly found ways to exploit space. France's ability to create transition opportunities continues to suit his game perfectly.
That form has naturally strengthened interest in the World Cup 2026 top scorer odds, where Mbappé remains one of the leading favourites. Even so, his advantage is slimmer than it first appears, as several direct rivals still have an extra knockout fixture to play.
The biggest challenge for Mbappé is maintaining his lead as the competition becomes more tactical. Opponents are increasingly building defensive plans specifically to contain him, meaning every goal from this point forward is likely to require even greater patience and precision.
Few players understand tournament football better than Messi. Despite playing only three matches, he has already matched Mbappé's six-goal tally, producing a hat-trick against Algeria, a brace against Austria, and another goal from the bench against Jordan.
His position is particularly interesting because Argentina's Round of 32 match against Cape Verde still lies ahead. That gives him an immediate opportunity to move ahead of the French forward before France returns to action, making the Golden Boot race far more balanced than the current standings alone suggest.
